Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3cc…447c
crypto · 181 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,253 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,420 · open −$731
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,964
Realized−$5,420
Unrealized−$731
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses120 / 56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)176 / 181
History coverage120d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 5 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,752
7 days−$3,752
14 days−$3,752
30 days−$3,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3,850 $3,777 −$73 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $541 $80 −$461 (-85%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $252 $76 −$176 (-70%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $43 $28 −$14 (-33%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $960 $0 −$960 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $7,157 −$3,541 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $518 −$212 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 21 $210 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1,150 −$1,131 -98%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $20 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 25 $20 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Feb 25 $158 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 25 $210 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $390 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $60 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $20 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 20 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 20 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 20 $78 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 20 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 19 $21 +$25 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 19 $79 +$7 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 66% −$4,480
crypto 21% −$425
other 9% −$1,250
sports 2% $0
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 29m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 4¢ $26 29m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 4¢ $98 29m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 29m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 57m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 57m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 3¢ $51 57m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 12¢ $865 58m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 21¢ $40 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 6¢ $41 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 8¢ $82 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,170 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 30¢ $682 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 57¢ $38 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 21¢ $54 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 7¢ $83 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 7¢ $129 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $552 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,023 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes 5¢ $307 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 62¢ $776 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $5,507 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 8¢ $261 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 22¢ $100 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 50¢ $494 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,109 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,034 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,023 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -53.7%
≤30d 6 -13.1% -21.4% 67% 17% -50.8%
≤90d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 57% 14% -56.0%
all 176 -9.8% -18.4% 68% 5% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 5% -34.5%
10% -26.2% 3% -40.8%
15% -33.3% 2% -46.5%
20% -39.9% 2% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,963.86 · official $3,992.99 (match) · 1348 history records