Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3cb…4cd0 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 48L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$13
other 28% +$2
politics 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 32 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 3% -9.2%
all 88 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 1% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage390d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $115 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $59 +$14 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $151 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $211 −$12 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $137 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $199 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $180 +$5 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $395 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $313 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $4 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $70 −$11 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $139 +$9 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $13 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $67 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $93 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 11 $5 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $45 $0 +0%
Iranian hackers release Trump emails by next Friday? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $1 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $10 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or higher on July 8? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $115 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $101 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $101 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $84 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $98 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $98 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $108 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $106 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $26 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.27 · official $116.27 (match) · 375 history records