Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3c7…3e1f
crypto · 104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$68 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)98 / 104
History coverage6d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day535.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 6 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $4,917 +$19 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $378 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $227 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $119 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $379 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $336 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $510 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $605 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $538 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $339 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $10 +$20 +190%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $401 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% +$12
economics 31% +$39
other 16% −$2
tech 8% $0
crypto 8% +$20
politics 5% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $13 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $15 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $48 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $49 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $24 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 6m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 6m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 6m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 6m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 8m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9 8m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $21 9m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 9m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $7 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +2.8% -7.0% 7% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 98 +2.8% -7.0% 7% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 98 +2.8% -7.0% 7% 2% -9.2%
all 98 +2.8% -7.0% 7% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover535.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 2% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -31.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.74 · official $156.74 (match) · 3500 history records