Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3c7…3c77
crypto · 40 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$63 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 5 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-12%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 6¢ 10¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$18 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$51 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$14 +91%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$7 -43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% +$51
other 15% −$92
sports 6% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $69 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $46 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $73 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $56 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 41% -15.5%
≤30d 34 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 34 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 41% -15.5%
all 34 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 41% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 29% -23.6%
15% -33.7% 24% -31.0%
20% -40.2% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.24 · official $290.09 · 110 history records