Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A3 0xa3c2…bd4c crypto 570 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-3%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%234W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$34
14 days−$105
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$126
sports 16% −$114
other 1% −$1
world 0% −$6
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.6% -6.3% 44% 44% -21.5%
≤30d 392 -34.2% -40.5% 32% 27% -40.0%
≤90d 557 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 37% -15.6%
all 557 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 37% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 34% -23.7%
15% -30.2% 30% -31.0%
20% -37.0% 25% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses234 / 323
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)557 / 570
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$7 +174%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +263%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 +$15 +80%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +225%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $28 −$23 -80%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 +$4 +26%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $9 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 +$7 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $6 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$5 +71%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$2 +53%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $9 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $9 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $4 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $8 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $1 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 62¢ $5 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $5 23h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $2 24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 20¢ $4 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.85 · official $20.79 (match) · 1618 history records