Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa3c2…4d6e sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$234 (-1%) realized −$205 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,684per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$560
other 17% −$773
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.1% -22.3% 56% 56% -10.2%
≤30d 16 -14.1% -22.3% 56% 56% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -14.1% -22.3% 56% 56% -10.2%
all 16 -14.1% -22.3% 56% 56% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 56% -10.2%
10% -29.7% 50% -18.8%
15% -36.5% 44% -26.6%
20% -42.7% 31% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$861 vs −$1,133 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,971
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,684
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $4,000 $3,971 −$29 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $166 +$79 +48%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $4,521 +$804 +18%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $713 −$700 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2,524 +$1,152 +46%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3,017 +$681 +23%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2,217 +$1,206 +54%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,531 +$1,707 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,216 −$1,200 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $758 −$750 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $456 +$306 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,528 −$1,500 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,015 +$983 +97%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $286 −$280 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,516 +$828 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4,038 47m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $245 48m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $166 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,325 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $713 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4,521 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $2,524 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $3,017 40h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,423 40h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2,217 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2,018 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. BUY 37¢ $275 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,531 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,216 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $758 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $762 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $456 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,528 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $286 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,523 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,516 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,970.59 · official $3,970.59 (match) · 28 history records