Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3c1…b8fa other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,225 (-3%) realized −$2,222 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%61W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$1,963
14 days−$1,946
30 days−$1,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 32% −$464
other 26% −$2,836
sports 23% +$1,569
politics 6% +$18
economics 5% +$145
crypto 4% −$700
world 2% +$97
finance 1% −$84
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.0% -30.3% 25% 12% -57.4%
≤30d 10 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 10% -40.6%
≤90d 24 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 25% -29.9%
all 107 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 29% -12.3%
10% -21.8% 19% -20.7%
15% -29.3% 15% -28.3%
20% -36.2% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$633) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$257 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses61 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 115
History coverage237d
Avg bet$642
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $21 +$86 +406%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $260 −$256 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,537 +$93 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 −$240 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $185 +$17 +9%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1,758 +$7 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $1,534 +$9 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $1,625 −$171 -10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 01 $126 +$20 +16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $409 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $929 +$14 +2%
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Beijing Ducks Apr 17 $1,887 −$914 -48%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Apr 17 $16 +$36 +232%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $88 +$1 +1%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 08 $540 −$474 -88%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Belinda Bencic Mar 24 $583 +$2 +0%
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles Mar 24 $34 +$65 +191%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Mar 23 $408 +$73 +18%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 23 $184 +$208 +113%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $129 −$114 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Mar 19 $1,057 +$537 +51%
Bucks vs. Thunder Mar 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Mar 19 $808 −$608 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 19 $877 −$877 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Mar 19 $147 −$147 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Nanjing Monkey King vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Mar 19 $88 +$12 +14%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $601 +$95 +16%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers Mar 17 $1,139 +$157 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Mar 17 $74 +$2 +3%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Qingdao Eagles Mar 17 $608 +$62 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 16 $599 +$10 +2%
Beijing Ducks vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Mar 11 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$156 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 10 $100 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 10 $101 +$96 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR BUY 4¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR BUY 3¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR BUY 4¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR BUY 4¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR BUY 3¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR BUY 3¢ $10 13h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 82¢ $107 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,365 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $260 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,537 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $225 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 3d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 92¢ $185 9d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,758 23d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,534 36d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 86¢ $1,454 36d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $156 44d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $9 44d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $17 44d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $1,200 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.18 · official $118.33 · 1364 history records