Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3c1…114a crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$343 (-13%) realized −$342 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$344
crypto 29% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 38 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 41 -4.7% -13.8% 95% 0% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -21.2%
10% -22.1% 0% -28.7%
15% -29.6% 0% -35.6%
20% -36.5% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$173 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$342
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage131d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 May 25-31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $344 −$344 -100%
Women's Group A - Czechia vs. Switzerland Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 06 $1,555 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 25h
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16d
Will Solana reach $110 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.44 · official $43.44 (match) · 83 history records