Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A3 0xa3b9…a5c2 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$98per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-12.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-3.3%	-12.5%	56%	56%	-13.4%
≤30d	9	-3.3%	-12.5%	56%	56%	-13.4%
≤90d	9	-3.3%	-12.5%	56%	56%	-13.4%
all	9	-3.3%	-12.5%	56%	56%	-13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.5%	56%	-13.4%
10%	-20.9%	44%	-21.7%
15%	-28.5%	44%	-29.3%
20%	-35.5%	33%	-36.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$73 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$232

Realized−$32

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage2d

Avg bet$98

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$150	$151	+$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Yes	51¢	50¢	$82	$81	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$22	+$30	+134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$36	+70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$51	+$51	+101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$213	+$36	+17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$212	−$211	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$212	+$101	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$83	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$152	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$22	15h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$25	15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	40¢	$51	15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$213	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$212	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$212	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.27 · official $232.27 (match) · 17 history records