Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A3 0xa3b7…5557 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$57 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown99%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$55

14 days+$37

30 days+$37

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+71.3%	+55.0%	29%	29%	+3.4%
≤30d	22	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-5.8%
≤90d	22	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-5.8%
all	22	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.3%	50%	-5.8%
10%	-2.9%	41%	-14.8%
15%	-12.3%	36%	-23.1%
20%	-20.9%	32%	-30.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +34% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$290

Realized+$57

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown99%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	No	82¢	84¢	$49	$51	+$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$49	$49	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$49	$49	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$48	$47	−$1 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$48	$47	−$1 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	28¢	26¢	$48	$46	−$3 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$201	−$34	-17%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 22	$15	−$14	-96%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$24	−$23	-96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$115	+$59	+52%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$86	+864%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$40	+$4	+11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$80	+$47	+59%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$40	−$39	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$40	+$41	+103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$40	+$11	+28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$40	+$22	+56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$80	−$78	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$40	−$39	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$7	+36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$26	+132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$14	+72%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$3	+15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	82¢	$50	1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$50	1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	67¢	$166	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	83¢	$100	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	74¢	$91	5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$24	5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	5d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$100	7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$40	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$40	9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$40	9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$40	9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$40	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$40	9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$40	9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$40	9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.52 · official $289.52 (match) · 45 history records