Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3b5…941a sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,693 (-1%) realized −$1,307 · open −$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%143W / 126L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$1,548est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,647
7 days−$3,976
14 days−$3,006
30 days−$3,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$457
other 15% −$2,048
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +7.8% -2.5% 54% 54% -17.1%
≤30d 117 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% -15.9%
≤90d 269 +6.2% -3.9% 53% 52% -10.9%
all 269 +6.2% -3.9% 53% 52% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 52% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 51% -19.4%
15% -21.5% 47% -27.2%
20% -29.2% 39% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$631) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$406 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,966
Realized−$1,307
Unrealized−$386
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses143 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,548
Open positions10
Markets (closed)269 / 279
History coverage47d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 46¢ $580 $465 −$115 (-20%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $426 $430 +$4 (+1%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 73¢ 74¢ $338 $340 +$2 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 46¢ 46¢ $322 $326 +$4 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 57¢ $133 $138 +$5 (+4%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 10¢ 14¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 39¢ 0¢ $287 $0 −$287 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $125 +$75 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,244 +$506 +41%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $480 +$520 +108%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $423 +$477 +113%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $794 +$1,030 +130%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $773 −$773 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Jun 20 $854 −$854 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 20 $650 −$650 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $679 −$679 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $587 −$387 -66%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $628 −$628 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jun 20 $510 −$510 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $495 −$495 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $790 −$790 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $805 −$805 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $916 −$401 -44%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $956 −$756 -79%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $620 −$390 -63%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $140 +$60 +43%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $812 −$463 -57%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $344 −$344 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $189 −$189 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $3 +$3 +122%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $685 +$515 +75%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $669 −$669 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Jun 19 $459 −$459 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 19 $1,239 −$391 -32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $881 −$881 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $949 −$749 -79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1,267 −$926 -73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 19 $1,415 −$1,157 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 19 $616 −$616 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $665 −$665 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 +$10 +245%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $394 −$394 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 +$74 +150%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3,383 +$569 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $541 −$460 -85%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $395 +$605 +153%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $701 +$499 +71%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$12 +100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $19 +$22 +117%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $614 −$305 -50%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $535 +$965 +180%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $648 −$648 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $380 −$380 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 25m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $112 27m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 73¢ $102 55m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 5¢ $3 1h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 73¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 28¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 29¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 29¢ $26 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $322 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 42¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 43¢ $44 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $129 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $290 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $290 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $176 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 77¢ $78 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $125 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 5¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 62¢ $63 4h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 73¢ $15 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $59 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,965.56 · official $1,920.62 · 2261 history records