Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3b4…39d5
crypto · 16 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$65 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$86 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% +$70
world 4% $0
sports 3% +$10
other 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 59m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 54% +5.7%
≤30d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 54% +5.7%
≤90d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 54% +5.7%
all 13 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 54% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 54% +5.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 23% -4.4%
15% -30.4% 15% -13.7%
20% -37.2% 15% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.13 · official $39.13 (match) · 37 history records