Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3b4…8bf7 sports 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,754 (-1%) realized −$4,759 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%316W / 16L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$982per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$536est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$187
14 days+$620
30 days+$1,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,837
weather 16% −$755
other 4% −$1,656
world 0% +$433
finance 0% +$5
politics 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% +22.8%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 78% 56% +24.7%
≤90d 149 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 7% -11.6%
all 332 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 4% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 3% -19.4%
15% -25.7% 2% -27.2%
20% -33.0% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,921) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$897 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$4,759
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses316 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$536
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage114d
Avg bet$982
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Wampirki 45¢ 46¢ $291 $295 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $521 +$190 +36%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,278 +$433 +34%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1,109 +$232 +21%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs JUMBO TEAM (BO3) - ESEA Advanced E Jun 08 $11 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $95 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 08 $418 +$59 +14%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $116 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $1,165 +$976 +84%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 26 $296 −$296 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gro May 25 $1,573 −$1,541 -98%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 16 $641 +$659 +103%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 12 $381 −$374 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 May 08 $274 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Incognito (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championshi May 04 $29 +$125 +430%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ODDIK Academy (BO3) - CCT South Americ May 04 $622 +$219 +35%
Counter-Strike: Phantom Academy vs aimclub (BO3) - Exort Series Main Apr 30 $3 +$1 +33%
Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $2,475 $0 +0%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $2,131 +$22 +1%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $2,107 +$21 +1%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 1 Win Apr 24 $20 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL Apr 24 $1,490 +$47 +3%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 24 $3,524 −$3,524 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 Winner Apr 24 $120 +$3 +2%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Apr 24 $1,511 +$15 +1%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Apr 23 $67 −$50 -75%
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Apr 23 $48 −$46 -94%
Will Stephanie Bice be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Apr 23 $17 −$14 -81%
Counter-Strike: MAGICOS vs largadosypelados (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs Akimbo Esports (BO3) - CCT North America Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: SE7ENS Esport vs JUMBO TEAM (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Euro Apr 23 $8 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: CSGOPOSITIVE vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series M Apr 23 $1,013 +$21 +2%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eternal premium (BO3) - Exort Series Mai Apr 23 $89 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Wingman (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders St Apr 23 $143 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers Apr 23 $162 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Glitchtech Esports vs eLITenergy (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Apr 23 $1,279 +$26 +2%
Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5 Apr 23 $797 +$8 +1%
Jordan Goodwin: Assists O/U 0.5 Apr 23 $968 +$10 +1%
Jordan Goodwin: Points O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $2,475 +$25 +1%
Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $2,475 +$25 +1%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 0.5 Apr 23 $2,475 +$25 +1%
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs eternal premium (BO3) - Exort Series Apr 20 $15 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - Exort S Apr 20 $1,020 +$21 +2%
Counter-Strike: EC BANGA vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Seri Apr 20 $65 +$1 +2%
Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $68 +$1 +1%
Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Apr 20 $495 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser Apr 20 $968 +$31 +3%
Mark Williams: Points O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $2,475 +$25 +1%
Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5 Apr 20 $2,475 +$25 +1%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Diamant Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Apr 15 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 43¢ $2 38m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 43¢ $57 38m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 47¢ $90 39m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 43¢ $86 40m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 46¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 33¢ $56 29h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 35¢ $49 29h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $71 29h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $27 31h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 37¢ $276 31h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $42 31h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY Game Hunters 34¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,278 11d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY INOX Division 64¢ $3 15d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY INOX Division 46¢ $8 15d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY INOX Division 44¢ $166 15d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY INOX Division 40¢ $933 15d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $93 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $130 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $48 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $1 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $78 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $1 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $8 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $4 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $1 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 44¢ $35 19d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Atreides 40¢ $20 19d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY Atreides 46¢ $89 19d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY Atreides 43¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.32 · official $295.32 (match) · 2028 history records