Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3b1…b295 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 17% +$1
politics 11% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage296d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $23 +$2 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $24 −$3 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 23 $5 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 27 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 27? Aug 27 $26 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 3h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $13 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $45 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $45 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $4 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $21 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $23 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $41 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $41 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records