Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3af…b7a6
world · 221 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,175 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,302 · open −$54
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,830
Realized−$1,302
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 103
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions304
Markets (closed)167 / 221
History coverage9d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day385.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 304 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,567
7 days−$1,414
14 days−$1,302
30 days−$1,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,241 $1,256 +$15 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,225 $1,227 +$3 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 84¢ $662 $658 −$5 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $534 $535 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 79¢ 82¢ $450 $468 +$19 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $465 $466 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $463 $461 −$3 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $451 $452 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 77¢ $363 $368 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $329 $327 −$2 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $315 $315 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $304 $304 +$1 (+0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $286 $290 +$4 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $278 $279 +$0 (+0%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $254 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $228 $246 +$19 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $224 $230 +$6 (+3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $230 $230 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 84¢ $201 $206 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $143 $143 +$1 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $137 $142 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -91%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$6 -117%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$10 -407%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$22 -161%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 −$5 -135%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $19 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -66%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$123
world 23% −$87
other 13% +$23
economics 11% +$7
sports 5% +$115
crypto 2% +$6
tech 1% +$33
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 0m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 0m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $5 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $6 1m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $15 3m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $29 4m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $33 4m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 5m
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 5m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $16 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 2h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 77¢ $5 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -41.3% -46.9% 35% 15% -38.8%
≤30d 167 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 15% -33.9%
≤90d 167 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 15% -33.9%
all 167 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 15% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover385.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.3% 15% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -46.9% 12% -40.2%
15% -52.1% 8% -46.0%
20% -56.8% 7% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,830.17 · official $16,829.59 (match) · 3500 history records