Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa3a6…8c44 world 14 markets active 112d ago coverage 264d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48,426 (+36%) realized +$48,426 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$9,602per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$58,412
politics 7% −$9,996
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 +37.7% +24.5% 64% 36% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 36% +23.1%
10% ← realistic here +12.6% 36% +11.3%
15% +1.7% 36% +0.5%
20% -8.2% 36% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,868 vs −$2,677 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48,426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage264d
Avg bet$9,602
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $519 +$357 +69%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $21,211 −$2,075 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET Jan 18 $12 +$9 +80%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $3,400 −$600 -18%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 16 $533 −$100 -19%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 16 $1,600 −$613 -38%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 28 $9,996 −$9,996 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? Jul 18 $8,571 +$6,926 +81%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 22 $6,272 +$22 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $25,004 +$156 +1%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 13 $43,335 +$1,679 +4%
Iran strike on Israel in June? Jun 13 $500 +$8 +2%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $13,045 +$52,329 +401%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 11 $435 +$324 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $876 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $519 112d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $574 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $21 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 153d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 153d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $620 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $37 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $2,800 155d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,834 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records