Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3a4…5106 politics 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$127,569 (+346%) realized +$132,532 · open −$4,963
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +333% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +233% what you keep after slip
Net edge+233%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%75W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,615per market
Trades / day207.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$2,990
other 15% −$4,151
culture 4% −$30
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+291.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 +332.6% +291.4% 25% 25% -95.1%
≤30d 304 +332.6% +291.4% 25% 25% -95.1%
≤90d 304 +332.6% +291.4% 25% 25% -95.1%
all 304 +332.6% +291.4% 25% 25% -95.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +291.4% 25% -95.1%
10% ← realistic here +254.0% 25% -95.6%
15% +219.8% 24% -96.0%
20% +188.4% 24% -96.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -133% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +333% · $-wt -133% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -100% → late +765% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$666 vs −$313 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3,389
Realized+$132,532
Unrealized−$4,963
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses75 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions196
Markets (closed)304 / 8
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$4,615
Trades / day207.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 196 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 26¢ $16 $510 +$494 (+3164%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $16 $370 +$354 (+2268%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $16 $230 +$214 (+1372%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $1,000 $170 −$830 (-83%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,041 $83 −$957 (-92%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $15 $67 +$52 (+342%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $12 $56 +$44 (+353%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $16 $53 +$37 (+239%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,072 $51 −$1,021 (-95%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $15 $50 +$35 (+225%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $3 $46 +$43 (+1277%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 4¢ 68¢ $2 $41 +$39 (+1749%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $37 +$21 (+137%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 56¢ $2 $34 +$32 (+1708%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+111%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+111%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+111%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $715 $28 −$687 (-96%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+60%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+60%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+60%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $486 $23 −$462 (-95%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 11¢ $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $1,000 $21 −$979 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 303 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +30%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 28 $70 −$619 -880%
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $33 −$61 -186%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $152 −$153 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $1 −$2,828 -188719%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 28 $1 −$134 -20855%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attor Jun 28 $2 −$137 -7982%
Will Louisville win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 28 $0 $0 -193%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 28 $1 −$34 -4142%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 28 $0 +$204 +151122%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Jun 28 $14 −$183 -1305%
Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 28 $104 −$120 -116%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $13 −$57 -430%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 −$231 -6944%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$11 -3817%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$8 -2688%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 28 $0 $0 -119%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 28 $0 +$102 +150510%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $4 −$51 -1318%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $0 +$314 +93148%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 28 $4 −$502 -14297%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$8 -2542%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $52 −$68 -130%
Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $129 −$146 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Jun 28 $6 −$7 -120%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 +$1,134 +381963%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 28 $0 +$1 +466%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$72 -21445%
Will Phil Mickelson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$9 -2960%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 28 $15 −$35 -232%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 28 $5 −$73 -1565%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 28 $0 +$68 +101232%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 28 $0 −$34 -8412%
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor Jun 28 $2 −$134 -7827%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 +$264 +88946%
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $36 +$54 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 28 $0 −$34 -8459%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $53 −$265 -502%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $0 −$14 -4745%
Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $49 −$265 -544%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 28 $1 −$21 -2595%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 28 $0 −$27 -6737%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $21 −$60 -291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend SELL Yes 21¢ $2 10m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 58m
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $47 2h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 3h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend SELL Yes 21¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,388.89 · official $3,389.27 (match) · 3500 history records