Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa3a3…c2f9
other · 124 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$168,503 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$147,088 · open +$11,732
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$246,337
Realized+$147,088
Unrealized+$11,732
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses54 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions31
Markets (closed)93 / 124
History coverage202d
Avg bet$9,783
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 31 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17,971
7 days+$17,971
14 days−$73,951
30 days−$73,951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $115,852 $126,639 +$10,787 (+9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $13,650 $13,575 −$75 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12,400 $12,300 −$100 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $11,600 $11,900 +$300 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10,050 $9,975 −$75 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10,200 $9,975 −$225 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $10,413 $9,776 −$637 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $7,410 $7,344 −$66 (-1%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,944 $6,940 −$4 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $6,000 $5,550 −$450 (-8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 84¢ $3,365 $5,365 +$2,000 (+59%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 59¢ 77¢ $3,620 $4,741 +$1,121 (+31%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 80¢ 96¢ $3,911 $4,718 +$807 (+21%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $3,010 $3,077 +$67 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $4,984 $3,075 −$1,909 (-38%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 60¢ $2,250 $3,025 +$775 (+34%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,440 $1,467 +$27 (+2%)
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,416 $1,420 +$3 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,131 $1,265 +$134 (+12%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,600 $950 −$650 (-41%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $737 $797 +$60 (+8%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No 45¢ 74¢ $450 $735 +$285 (+63%)
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $498 $503 +$5 (+1%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $379 $396 +$17 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 58¢ 30¢ $582 $296 −$286 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $10,000 +$3,103 +31%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $14,626 −$8,586 -59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $34,946 +$25,054 +72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,633 −$1,600 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $1,481 +$3,519 +238%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 30 $11,747 +$4,253 +36%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 30 $16,260 +$538 +3%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? May 30 $382 −$382 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-31? May 30 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? May 30 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? May 30 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? May 30 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? May 30 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? May 30 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? May 30 $600 −$600 -100%
Will England win? May 30 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? May 30 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 30 $406 −$406 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? May 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? May 30 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? May 30 $734 −$734 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? May 30 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? May 30 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? May 30 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $2,850 −$2,850 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-06? May 30 $11,700 −$11,700 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? May 30 $14,200 −$14,200 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? May 30 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? May 30 $16,776 −$16,776 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? May 30 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $2,354 −$2,354 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? May 30 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? May 30 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? May 30 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? May 30 $2,940 −$2,940 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 30 $8,100 −$8,100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? May 30 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 07 $2,667 +$673 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $24,400 −$4,400 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 03 $657 +$411 +63%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $2,784 +$697 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $11,919 +$10,816 +91%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $12,900 +$17,100 +133%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $9,100 +$14,455 +159%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $211,035 +$8,965 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 04 $8,300 +$580 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$45,102
economics 20% +$23,581
politics 18% −$8,050
world 7% +$74,936
sports 4% +$20,607
tech 1% +$2,147
finance 0% +$497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 1m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 16m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 18m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 22m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 23m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 25m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 25m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $89 25m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,166 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 7h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 9h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +17.1%
≤30d 41 -77.5% -79.7% 12% 10% -44.6%
≤90d 45 -68.5% -71.5% 18% 16% -40.8%
all 93 +14.7% +3.8% 58% 44% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.8% 44% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 41% -4.6%
15% -15.2% 34% -13.8%
20% -23.5% 31% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246,337.37 · official $246,313.52 (match) · 3500 history records