Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa3a3…c822 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$132
crypto 12% −$63
world 6% +$7
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 15 -4.2% -13.3% 93% 0% -12.9%
all 27 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 4% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 4% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$40 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage333d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $134 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this Apr 24 $60 +$4 +6%
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? Apr 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $23 $0 +2%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Mar 26 $61 −$61 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $61 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 25 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 25 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Dec 29 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 29 $26 +$4 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $27 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 28 $29 −$20 -69%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Oct 28 $28 +$17 +61%
Solana Up or Down on July 17? Jul 23 $1,028 +$10 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18? Jul 23 $9,261 +$107 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $54 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $55 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $135 13d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $134 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $130 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 100¢ $15 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 99¢ $64 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 99¢ $50 45d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 100¢ $128 52d
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 93¢ $41 63d
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 93¢ $19 63d
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this BUY No 94¢ $60 63d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $23 81d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 99¢ $23 81d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 94¢ $23 81d
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 99¢ $23 81d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 94¢ $23 81d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY No 99¢ $61 135d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $27 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $27 168d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 100¢ $6 168d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? BUY No 86¢ $5 211d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? BUY No 86¢ $21 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? BUY No 95¢ $28 211d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 230d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $27 230d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $27 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.82 · official $135.82 (match) · 71 history records