Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39e…4946 other 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%55W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$11
other 24% +$1
politics 21% −$2
sports 9% +$8
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.2% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 22 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 65 -4.3% -13.5% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 168 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses55 / 113
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage490d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 96¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $91 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -27%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $91 +$2 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $119 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $354 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $89 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $47 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $84 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $70 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $147 −$8 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $169 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $91 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $152 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $294 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $227 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $200 +$1 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $85 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $93 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $91 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $90 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $90 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $82 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $82 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $76 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $76 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.72 · official $85.75 (match) · 778 history records