Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39e…d6ce other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-16%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$9
sports 30% +$2
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.1% -20.4% 53% 53% -20.0%
≤30d 16 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 56% -1.4%
≤90d 20 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 55% -31.0%
all 20 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 55% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 55% -31.0%
10% -25.5% 55% -37.6%
15% -32.7% 45% -43.6%
20% -39.3% 35% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage41d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $1 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 16d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 36d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 38d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.53 · official $10.53 (match) · 37 history records