Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa39c…08bc other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$29,614 (+9%) realized +$39,102 · open −$9,488
Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate85%22W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$8,938per market
Trades / day65.9pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$95,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$4,881
world 29% +$80,705
sports 4% +$1,323
crypto 3% +$1,186
politics 1% +$15,946
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+98.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.6% +19.0% 90% 50% +20.3%
≤30d 23 +33.4% +20.7% 87% 52% +23.0%
≤90d 26 +119.8% +98.9% 85% 54% +30.1%
all 26 +119.8% +98.9% 85% 54% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +98.9% 54% +30.1%
10% +79.9% 38% +17.6%
15% ← realistic here +62.5% 27% +6.3%
20% +46.6% 23% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +120% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$9,750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +202% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
61.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,787 vs −$386 · ×12.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×68.25 per $1 lost it wins $68.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$95,236
Realized+$39,102
Unrealized−$9,488
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$8,938
Trades / day65.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19,536 $19,510 −$26 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21,441 $17,850 −$3,591 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $17,733 $16,380 −$1,353 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15,881 $16,050 +$169 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,888 $10,425 −$2,463 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3,420 $3,950 +$530 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3,570 $3,525 −$45 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,120 $3,410 −$710 (-17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,435 $2,486 −$950 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,799 $1,100 −$699 (-39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $900 $550 −$350 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10,018 +$1,186 +12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,367 +$683 +29%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26,711 +$2,549 +10%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $712 +$88 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6,760 +$22 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44,289 +$1,875 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9,963 +$927 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $9,600 +$29,750 +310%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $522 −$522 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $927 +$273 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $716 +$284 +40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $746 +$254 +34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,015 +$985 +97%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $893 +$107 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 30 $9,750 +$230 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $721 +$79 +11%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $256 −$256 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA May 28 $215 −$215 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 26 $4,373 +$377 +9%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $9,796 +$8 +0%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $9,315 +$685 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $446 +$1,504 +338%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $19,490 +$20,060 +103%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 19 $1,050 −$550 -52%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 06 $3,991 +$15,946 +400%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 01 $5 +$27,437 +587526%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 27m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 30m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $320 34m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 43m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 44m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 47m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 47m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 50m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95,235.85 · official $95,235.85 (match) · 3500 history records