Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa39c…1d84 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+21%) realized +$7 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1
weather 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +66.6% +50.7% 50% 33% +45.3%
≤30d 6 +66.6% +50.7% 50% 33% +45.3%
≤90d 6 +66.6% +50.7% 50% 33% +45.3%
all 6 +66.6% +50.7% 50% 33% +45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.7% 33% +45.3%
10% +36.3% 33% +31.4%
15% +23.1% 33% +18.7%
20% +11.1% 33% +7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +535%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 24m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 34h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 18 history records