Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa39a…1246 sports 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,925 (+11%) realized +$35,816 · open +$109
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%207W / 172L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$4,343est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,726
7 days+$8,570
14 days+$8,001
30 days+$20,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$24,656
other 0% +$63
crypto 0% +$629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 61% +9.1%
≤30d 230 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 55% +1.8%
≤90d 379 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 54% -2.2%
all 379 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 54% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 54% -2.2%
10% -18.7% 53% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 49% -20.1%
20% -33.8% 40% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$630 vs −$612 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized+$35,816
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses207 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,343
Open positions14
Markets (closed)379 / 393
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$807
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $80 −$21 (-21%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Under 60¢ $5 $53 +$48 (+892%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 31¢ 53¢ $30 $52 +$21 (+71%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Over 44¢ $4 $46 +$42 (+1000%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 26¢ $1 $18 +$16 (+1200%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Over 43¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+617%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 50¢ 56¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 10¢ 36¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+255%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 41¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Under 47¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+422%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $371 +$45 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,005 +$1,393 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $999 −$998 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,002 +$998 +50%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $1,877 +$1,123 +60%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $335 +$165 +49%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4,021 +$1,866 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5,056 +$1,481 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,078 −$1,064 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,299 +$643 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $36 +$10 +28%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $12 +$2 +21%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1,045 −$1,044 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $60 −$59 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $1,248 −$1,243 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $48 +$66 +137%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $323 +$177 +55%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $911 +$89 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $116 +$82 +70%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $240 −$240 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $513 +$497 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $583 +$427 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $400 +$300 +75%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $268 +$132 +50%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $733 +$334 +46%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $280 +$21 +8%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $128 −$128 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $265 +$52 +20%
ITF Maanshan: Koki Matsuda vs Artem Alekseychuk Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $245 +$255 +104%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $265 +$235 +89%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $315 +$185 +59%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $10,340 +$4,715 +46%
Lyon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Dali Blanch Jun 09 $998 −$998 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $935 −$935 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $270 +$230 +85%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $599 +$401 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $1,000 −$265 -26%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $1,943 −$40 -2%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $237 +$210 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $706 −$705 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $285 +$215 +75%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 07 $125 −$125 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $265 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $7 +$3 +47%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $603 +$407 +67%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $624 +$476 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $295 −$295 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 60¢ $216 32m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 60¢ $170 32m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 57¢ $2 33m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 57¢ $29 33m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $147 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $104 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $56 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 55¢ $56 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $55 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $530 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $482 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $27 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $22 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $438 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $18 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $366 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $59 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $416 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $46 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $281 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $46 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $80 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $37 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $80 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.83 · official $490.83 (match) · 3500 history records