Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa39a…013b crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$123 (+15%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.9% -6.9% 63% 42% -6.8%
≤30d 39 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 42% -16.1%
all 42 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 45% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 45% +4.0%
10% -16.9% 40% -5.9%
15% -24.9% 38% -15.0%
20% -32.3% 38% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.92 per $1 lost it wins $6.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage103d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Up 51¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6AM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7AM ET Apr 08 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2AM ET Mar 17 $11 +$3 +27%
XRP Up or Down on March 5? Mar 06 $763 +$126 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $1.23 (match) · 77 history records