Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa399…b304 sports 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,186 (+9%) realized −$440 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%83W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$118
crypto 19% +$7
other 19% −$565
tech 1% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +17.4%
≤30d 7 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +17.4%
≤90d 59 -15.5% -23.6% 59% 47% -10.0%
all 120 -12.5% -20.8% 69% 32% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 32% -12.8%
10% -28.4% 23% -21.2%
15% -35.3% 15% -28.8%
20% -41.7% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$66 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses83 / 37
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage248d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 57¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $85 +$22 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $35 +$8 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$16 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 15 $2 $0 +11%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $309 −$50 -16%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $204 −$94 -46%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $15 +$13 +86%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $137 +$35 +26%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 16 $100 −$97 -96%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $1 $0 +35%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $1 +$1 +60%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $1 +$1 +90%
KHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. Ak Bars Kazan Apr 09 $98 −$97 -99%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? Apr 06 $88 +$62 +70%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $174 −$23 -13%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Apr 06 $103 −$15 -15%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $50 −$49 -99%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $166 −$165 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on April 4? Apr 05 $249 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on April 4? Apr 05 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? Apr 05 $63 −$13 -21%
Will Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? Apr 05 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $429 −$124 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $366 −$54 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 05 $112 +$45 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma Apr 05 $411 +$56 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $476 −$351 -74%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 04 $639 +$145 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 04 $200 +$68 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 04 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $340 on March 31? Apr 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 on March 31? Apr 02 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $48 +$55 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? Apr 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $150 +$46 +31%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $150 +$48 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims Apr 02 $250 −$249 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $50 −$49 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 31 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Mar 31 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $10 +$12 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $676 +$848 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $107 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $107 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $43 35m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $43 36m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $17 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $24 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $15 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $15 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $48 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 83¢ $3 19d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 83¢ $1 19d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Sergei Pavlovich 82¢ $2 19d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $36 30d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 50¢ $65 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $108 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 58¢ $108 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 62¢ $95 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $95 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $109 36d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) SELL Ateba Gautier 100¢ $109 36d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Ateba Gautier 90¢ $99 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $99 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $201 41d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 79¢ $4 42d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 42d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 42d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 79¢ $30 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.00 · official $111.00 (match) · 348 history records