Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$10,841

7 days+$47,519

14 days+$71,767

30 days+$71,767

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	20¢	18¢	$686	$636	−$50 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$5,961	+$5,615	+94%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$5,728	+$548	+10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	Jun 12	$12,074	−$12,074	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	Jun 12	$11,569	+$8,032	+69%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$6,886	+$4,801	+70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Jun 11	$17,764	−$17,764	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5	Jun 10	$1,107	−$1,107	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	Jun 10	$5,616	+$14,923	+266%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Jun 10	$7,566	+$9,218	+122%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Jun 10	$15,359	+$11,578	+75%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 09	$3,155	−$3,155	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Jun 09	$14,776	+$15,386	+104%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 09	$4,344	−$4,344	-100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 08	$699	−$699	-100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5)	Jun 08	$2,292	−$2,292	-100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 08	$9,551	+$4,742	+50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 07	$10,930	+$10,459	+96%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	Jun 07	$2,216	+$5,736	+259%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Jun 07	$3,811	+$4,861	+128%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	Jun 07	$9,438	+$2,725	+29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Jun 07	$12,336	+$9,690	+79%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5	Jun 06	$4,573	−$4,573	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	Jun 06	$14,789	−$14,789	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5	Jun 05	$1,812	−$1,812	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	Jun 05	$5,374	+$6,357	+118%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	Jun 05	$23,312	+$15,968	+68%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 03	$3,771	+$4,075	+108%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	Jun 03	$4,543	+$3,621	+80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	Jun 03	$4,611	+$339	+7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian	May 31	$5,024	−$4,299	-86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 98% +$76,016

politics 2% −$4,299

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	20¢	$706	1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$11,576	3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6,275	3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	90¢	$5,728	7h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$5,961	9h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$11,687	9h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$6,886	14h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	58¢	$11,569	25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	46¢	$12,074	25h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	BUY Over	50¢	$17,764	44h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	100¢	$20,539	2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	18¢	$1,107	2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	27¢	$3,715	2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	26¢	$1,901	3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	44¢	$7,566	3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	56¢	$15,359	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	BUY Over	48¢	$14,776	3d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1,221	4d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2,913	4d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1,431	4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$365	4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1,569	4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	100¢	$14,293	4d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	45¢	$699	4d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5)	BUY Colombia	44¢	$2,292	4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	65¢	$9,551	4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	SELL Golden Knights	100¢	$21,389	5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7,952	5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	50¢	$10,930	5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	76¢	$3,022	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+23.9%	+12.1%	61%	57%	+14.0%
≤30d	30	+24.8%	+13.0%	63%	57%	+18.6%
≤90d	30	+24.8%	+13.0%	63%	57%	+18.6%
all	30	+24.8%	+13.0%	63%	57%	+18.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+13.0%	57%	+18.6%
10% ← realistic here	+2.1%	57%	+7.2%
15%	-7.7%	53%	-3.1%
20%	-16.8%	50%	-12.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.