Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa396…15b5 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$19 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$15
sports 39% −$14
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 45% -12.9%
≤30d 35 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 40% -15.3%
≤90d 35 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 40% -15.3%
all 35 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 40% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -15.3%
10% -26.1% 37% -23.4%
15% -33.2% 37% -30.8%
20% -39.8% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 55¢ 42¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$9 -73%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $12 +$11 +93%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$2 -46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $8 +$10 +124%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -53%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$7 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 +$2 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 −$12 -66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$9 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 34m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 61¢ $25 35m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $26 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $3 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $5 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $12 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $8 18h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $21 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $15 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $12 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 59¢ $9 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $20 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.73 · official $18.73 (match) · 70 history records