Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa38e…339c politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$133 (+17%) realized +$205 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 40L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$172
politics 30% −$66
sports 24% −$4
world 7% −$55
crypto 4% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +81.3% +64.0% 31% 31% +111.0%
≤90d 47 -37.0% -43.0% 15% 13% +14.9%
all 47 -37.0% -43.0% 15% 13% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 13% +14.9%
10% -48.5% 13% +3.9%
15% -53.5% 13% -6.1%
20% -58.0% 11% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$8 · ×8.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage99d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 51¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+25%)
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Filip Jeff Planinsek 33¢ 40¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 33¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 42¢ 10¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 42¢ 4¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-89%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 19 $36 +$39 +109%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $18 +$288 +1594%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 31 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Small Business Summit? May 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Security" during Small Business Summit? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Market" during Small Business Summit? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit? May 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "King" during Small Business Summit? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Made in America" during Small Business Summit? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during S May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will JD Vance say "Ukraine" in Des Moines? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kanye tweet again by May 31? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 30 $30 +$76 +254%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $8 +$3 +40%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek BUY Filip Jeff Planinsek 33¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 42¢ $41 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $10 7d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 7d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $10 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $25 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 19d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $15 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $15 19d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 26¢ $15 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 22d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 34¢ $10 24d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $10 24d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? SELL 70k 85¢ $49 27d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 43d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 43d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 43d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 43d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 44d
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 44d
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.98 · official $203.98 (match) · 71 history records