Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa38e…5062 other 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,570 (-0%) realized −$1,434 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate88%260W / 34L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,190per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$223
14 days+$228
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$270
other 34% −$1,578
world 14% +$516
sports 7% −$298
economics 1% +$7
tech 1% +$10
crypto 0% −$8
finance 0% +$8
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.1% -4.9% 87% 13% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +2.0% -7.7% 81% 9% -9.7%
≤90d 134 -2.0% -11.3% 86% 4% -10.1%
all 294 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,099) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$153 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1,835
Realized−$1,434
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses260 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions16
Markets (closed)294 / 310
History coverage235d
Avg bet$1,190
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $384 $385 +$1 (+0%)
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $236 $237 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will Samú Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $169 $133 −$35 (-21%)
Will Vitinha be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 44¢ 18¢ $193 $79 −$114 (-59%)
Will Tomás Araújo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 92¢ 100¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $42 $55 +$13 (+32%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 66¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $119,236 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $489 +$10 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $344 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $482 +$17 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,625 +$68 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $631 +$51 +8%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 13 $229 +$10 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $493 $0 +0%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $552 +$8 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $346 +$13 +4%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $280 +$6 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$7 +25%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $794 +$15 +2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $446 +$4 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $322 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $630 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $21 −$1 -2%
Will António Silva be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup s Jun 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bruma be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will Pepe be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squad list Jun 02 $499 +$1 +0%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 02 $135 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $640 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $570 +$30 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $2,053 −$607 -30%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 28 $2,609 −$88 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? May 27 $20 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $790 +$10 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $940 +$10 +1%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 +$16 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $820 +$180 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $789 −$2 -0%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $654 +$6 +1%
Will Nélson Semedo be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup s May 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will João Félix be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squa May 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will João Neves be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squa May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will Tomás Araújo be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup sq May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will José Sá be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squad l May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will Francisco Conceição be included in Portugal's official 2026 World May 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will Samu Costa be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squa May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will Gonçalo Guedes be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be included in Portugal's official 2026 World C May 19 $187 +$1 +1%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup May 19 $185 $0 +0%
Will Bernardo Silva be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup May 19 $358 +$2 +1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $438 −$10 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 17 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $592 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $85 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $6 5m
Will Tomás Araújo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $1 17m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $1 17m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $91 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 21m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will Samú Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Will Vitinha be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 1h
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $22 16h
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $33 16h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $63 17h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 17h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 17h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $206 17h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $0 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $66 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $6 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $163 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $208 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $47 18h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $344 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $83 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $33 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,835.30 · official $1,838.00 (match) · 2118 history records