Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa38a…821d
sports · 194 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$27,250 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,757 · open +$24,493
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$155,810
Realized+$2,757
Unrealized+$24,493
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses107 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$9,789
Open positions6
Markets (closed)333 / 194
Avg bet$5,308
Trades / day403.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 6 History 333 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,621
7 days−$19,129
14 days+$2,757
30 days+$2,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $117,104 $115,359 −$1,745 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 81¢ $1,418 $32,299 +$30,881 (+2177%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $4,300 $4,935 +$635 (+15%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $2,235 $2,857 +$622 (+28%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $6,250 $350 −$5,900 (-94%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Knicks 33¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Dom Mar Fan 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Missouri State Bears vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Missouri State Bears 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Green Bay Phoenix Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Over 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Thunder 26¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Spurs 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Cavaliers 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Wizards 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Pistons 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Missouri State Bears vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Green Bay Phoenix Jun 12 $8 +$108 +1371%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-2.5) Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweigh Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $573 −$573 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jun 12 $13 +$27 +201%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $4,921 −$4,921 -100%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 12 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lafayette Leopards vs. Army Black Knights (W) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Colgate Raiders vs. Holy Cross Crusaders Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Rockets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$117,763
other 28% −$5,956
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 3¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $48 6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $54 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $98 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $313 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $223 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $73 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $826 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $16 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $140 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $24 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -40.1% -45.8% 30% 24% -11.2%
≤30d 333 -38.2% -44.1% 32% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 333 -38.2% -44.1% 32% 25% -9.3%
all 333 -38.2% -44.1% 32% 25% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover403.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 25% -9.3%
10% -49.5% 20% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -54.3% 15% -25.9%
20% -58.8% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155,809.50 · official $155,809.50 (match) · 3500 history records