Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa389…efd7 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 25% −$8
politics 24% +$1
sports 10% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 10% -8.5%
≤30d 23 -5.2% -14.2% 30% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 63 -3.8% -13.0% 24% 2% -9.5%
all 71 -4.0% -13.2% 30% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage537d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $49 −$3 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $36 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $22 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $84 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $186 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $3 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $12 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $44 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $42 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.76 · official $41.14 (match) · 332 history records