Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa388…d84e world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,221 (-7%) realized −$1,201 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$385
7 days−$385
14 days−$385
30 days−$2,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
finance 21% +$3,307
politics 13% −$1,940
crypto 12% −$1,945
other 8% −$253
economics 2% −$59
sports 1% −$199
tech 1% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.4% -38.0% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 19 -44.1% -49.4% 5% 5% -33.5%
≤90d 49 -37.2% -43.2% 22% 20% -16.5%
all 49 -37.2% -43.2% 22% 20% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 20% -16.5%
10% -48.6% 20% -24.5%
15% -53.6% 20% -31.8%
20% -58.1% 12% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$141 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$1,201
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage61d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 71¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 17 $370 −$208 -56%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $6,575 −$176 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $157 −$43 -28%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $299 −$22 -7%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 27 $160 −$149 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -72%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? May 27 $1 $0 -20%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? May 27 $1 $0 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $1 +$1 +70%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 21 $177 −$168 -95%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -38%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 21 $1 $0 -36%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $400 −$19 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 19 $1,902 −$1,791 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 04 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 04 $1 $0 +45%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $1,278 −$1,230 -96%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $664 −$643 -97%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? May 02 $104 −$63 -61%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $823 −$337 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $1,693 +$3,179 +188%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $1,017 +$666 +66%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $249 −$199 -80%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $1 $0 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $101 +$261 +259%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +99%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 18 $18 −$17 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 18 $51 −$49 -96%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Apr 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $36 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $70 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $16 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes $111 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $176 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $185 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes $86 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $97 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $79 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $18 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $151 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $40 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $11 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes $29 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $157 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $84 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $55 18d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $178 18d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $90 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 18d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes $40 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.99 · official $118.83 (match) · 274 history records