Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa386…cb0f sports 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,497 (+9%) realized +$4,500 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%162W / 168L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$398est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$657
7 days+$1,627
14 days−$1,298
30 days+$2,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,453
other 34% +$1,915
world 1% +$542
crypto 1% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 48% +12.5%
≤30d 240 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 45% -3.5%
≤90d 330 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 47% -2.2%
all 330 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 47% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 47% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 40% -11.5%
15% -30.2% 29% -20.1%
20% -37.0% 21% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$92 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$4,500
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses162 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$398
Open positions4
Markets (closed)330 / 334
History coverage41d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $109 $107 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $430 +$144 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $469 +$48 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $671 +$577 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $94 +$213 +226%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 +$53 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 +$53 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $44 +$100 +226%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$46 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $673 +$375 +56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$18 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 +$110 +281%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $348 −$347 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$520 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $512 +$517 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $272 −$180 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $999 +$436 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$13 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $87 +$68 +78%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $177 −$174 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $238 +$7 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $292 +$51 +18%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$28 +238%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $133 +$26 +19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $83 −$15 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 26m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $326 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $38 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $54 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $131 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $86 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $173 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $671 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $46 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $94 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $54 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $44 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $367 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $106 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $185 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $82 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.04 · official $161.04 (match) · 1080 history records