Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa384…3c9f sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,039 (-65%) realized −$2,964 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 27% 27% -76.3%
≤30d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 27% 27% -76.3%
≤90d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 27% 27% -76.3%
all 15 -42.3% -47.8% 27% 27% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 27% -76.3%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 27% -78.6%
15% -57.3% 27% -80.6%
20% -61.5% 27% -82.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$342 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$725
Realized−$2,964
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 58¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 36¢ 36¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 40¢ 30¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-24%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ 4¢ $68 $5 −$62 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $127 −$127 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $277 +$215 +78%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $73 +$77 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $89 −$88 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $527 −$527 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $620 −$620 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $102 +$126 +124%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $633 −$633 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $152 −$152 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $102 +$161 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $277 2h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,016 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $111 14h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $37 14h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $41 14h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $59 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $89 14h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $69 14h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $127 14h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $73 14h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $620 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $527 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $347 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $23 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $13 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $239 22h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 38¢ $102 26h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $152 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 31¢ $204 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $203 26h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 41¢ $102 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $102 27h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $102 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.45 · official $720.21 (match) · 43 history records