Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa383…5ec9 crypto 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%441W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$35
sports 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 6% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 627 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 65% -10.3%
all 627 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 65% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 65% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -40.7% 1% -26.7%
20% -46.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses441 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)627 / 627
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 627 Trades
no open positions (178 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1953 history records