Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A3 0xa37d…b5eb other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+7%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$3
other 46% $0
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤90d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% +1.4%
all 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 50% +1.4%
10% -24.3% 50% -8.3%
15% -31.6% 50% -17.1%
20% -38.3% 50% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 47m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 20 history records