Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa37c…8b28 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2
other 21% $0
sports 7% $0
politics 3% +$5
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 -8.1% -16.9% 15% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -8.1% -16.9% 15% 0% -9.5%
all 31 -3.3% -12.5% 39% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -20.9% 3% -17.8%
15% -28.5% 3% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage477d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $53 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $12 +$5 +45%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $18 $0 +3%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 22 $4 −$1 -13%
Will 'The Brutalist' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 03 $4 −$2 -39%
Manhattan vs. Niagara Mar 02 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $6 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $5 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $12 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $2 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $1.36 (match) · 100 history records