Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa377…a2cc
sports · 261 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$312 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$332 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$332
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses64 / 184
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)248 / 261
History coverage231d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 13 History 248 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$148
14 days+$144
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 34¢ 18¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 29¢ 19¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-54%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? No 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Kings Kings 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? No 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mavericks 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$147 +1471%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $19 −$10 -51%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $6 +$7 +124%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$8 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 31 $12 −$7 -56%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? May 25 $4 +$6 +152%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? May 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Will CF América win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $17 −$7 -41%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $22 +$37 +168%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $12 −$7 -58%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 14 $2 +$5 +233%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $5 +$4 +82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 07 $17 −$4 -23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$22
other 34% +$174
sports 17% +$174
politics 6% −$29
crypto 1% −$23
tech 0% −$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $6 50m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 5¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $7 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No 1¢ $2 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY No 1¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +242.2% +209.6% 50% 50% +280.8%
≤30d 13 +89.5% +71.5% 38% 38% +143.4%
≤90d 29 +61.3% +46.0% 24% 24% +40.3%
all 248 +2.9% -6.9% 26% 25% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 25% -1.5%
10% -15.8% 25% -10.9%
15% -23.9% 23% -19.5%
20% -31.4% 21% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.44 · official $40.45 (match) · 889 history records