Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa374…9709
sports · 219 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$26,103 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26,188 · open +$85
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$21,549
Realized−$26,188
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses79 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,468
Open positions24
Markets (closed)290 / 219
Avg bet$554
Trades / day132.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 24 History 290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,161
7 days−$31,689
14 days−$32,864
30 days−$26,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,318 $3,095 −$223 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,850 $2,625 −$225 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,500 $2,250 +$750 (+50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,135 $1,982 −$152 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,005 $1,905 −$100 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,845 $1,742 −$102 (-6%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,400 $1,575 +$175 (+13%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,600 $1,400 −$200 (-12%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $582 $581 −$1 (-0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 57¢ $560 $575 +$15 (+3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $560 $565 +$5 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $530 $535 +$5 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $520 $515 −$5 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $450 +$150 (+50%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 41¢ $438 $415 −$23 (-5%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $265 $268 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $35 $44 +$10 (+27%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 31¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $630 $0 −$630 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $773 −$773 -100%
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $253 −$253 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $513 −$513 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 12 $319 −$319 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $376 −$376 -100%
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $344 −$344 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $312 −$312 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $228 −$228 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Mi Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $717 −$717 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Mini Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $588 −$588 -100%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $216 −$216 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 9.5 Total Corner Jun 12 $381 −$381 -100%
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Jun 12 $50 −$60 -119%
Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Quest Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Jun 12 $100 −$97 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime M Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$1,540
other 23% −$9,741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $293 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $0 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $2 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $62 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $3 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $9 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $28 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $16 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $23 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $326 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 28h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $1 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $7 36h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $1 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $34 37h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 38h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $246 38h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $50 39h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -70.4% -73.3% 11% 11% -60.4%
≤30d 290 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -29.7%
≤90d 290 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -29.7%
all 290 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover132.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.4% 27% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -47.0% 27% -36.4%
15% -52.1% 27% -42.6%
20% -56.8% 27% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,548.89 · official $21,548.99 (match) · 3500 history records