Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa374…e619 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$18
other 23% −$4
politics 16% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -1.5% -10.8% 42% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 64 -3.8% -12.9% 41% 0% -10.1%
all 80 -4.1% -13.3% 39% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 1% -10.2%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage369d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $55 −$3 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $47 −$14 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $4 −$1 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $21 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $14 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $41 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -5%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $47 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $138 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $24 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $28 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $29 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $32 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $31 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records