Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa371…e2b9 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 32% −$3
politics 8% −$17
crypto 6% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 31% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 31% 0% -9.1%
all 35 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -11.7%
10% -24.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -32.1% 0% -27.8%
20% -38.7% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage392d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 +$2 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 01 $4 $0 -4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 31 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 26 $22 $0 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $2 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $15 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $17 43h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.60 (match) · 137 history records