Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa371…60c5 other 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,008 (+7%) realized +$4,021 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%123W / 127L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$929
sports 33% +$2,554
world 1% +$216
crypto 0% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +22.3% +10.6% 46% 38% -8.9%
≤30d 21 +12.5% +1.8% 52% 48% +6.9%
≤90d 101 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 52% +2.3%
all 250 +8.6% -1.7% 49% 46% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 46% -3.3%
10% -11.1% 42% -12.5%
15% -19.7% 34% -21.0%
20% -27.6% 24% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$102 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$4,021
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses123 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)250 / 253
History coverage234d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 38¢ $90 $79 −$11 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +43%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $152 −$76 -50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$129 -64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$82 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$84 +328%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$68 -68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$10 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$3 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$184 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $193 +$122 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $996 +$459 +46%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $244 −$240 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $223 +$237 +106%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $152 +$79 +52%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $564 +$282 +50%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $152 +$107 +70%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $184 +$122 +66%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score May 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 16 $202 +$72 +36%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score May 16 $151 −$150 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $327 +$178 +55%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 14 $189 +$138 +73%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $261 −$7 -3%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 12 $109 +$42 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 11 $51 −$3 -7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $334 −$329 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 −$18 -18%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $161 +$61 +38%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $302 +$137 +46%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1,042 +$301 +29%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $30 +$28 +91%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $61 −$39 -64%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $96 +$76 +79%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $482 +$13 +3%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $202 +$80 +40%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $609 +$544 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $500 +$189 +38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $100 +$83 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $92 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $74 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $3 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $152 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $73 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $120 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $33 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $105 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $96 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $315 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $193 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.64 · official $276.64 (match) · 542 history records