Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa36f…180b sports 42 markets active 1d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$222,386 (+39%) realized +$222,386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$13,587per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$3,135est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67,200
7 days+$69,651
14 days+$69,651
30 days+$290,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$106,021
sports 37% +$114,788
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +85.0% +67.4% 83% 83% +95.1%
≤30d 33 +8.6% -1.8% 58% 58% +49.5%
≤90d 42 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 48% +25.5%
all 42 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 48% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 48% +25.5%
10% -26.2% 48% +13.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.3% 48% +2.6%
20% -39.8% 45% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$12,603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
39.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,984 vs −$6,312 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$222,386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$3,135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage38d
Avg bet$13,587
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8,230 +$10,909 +133%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11,937 +$17,178 +144%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10,238 +$9,886 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $26,549 +$30,485 +115%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,258 −$1,258 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,005 +$2,451 +122%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,753 −$1,753 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1,784 −$1,784 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $9,230 +$6,153 +67%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $33,132 +$23,223 +70%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 May 31 $373 −$368 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 31 $2,394 +$1,353 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $108,000 +$72,000 +67%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $120 −$120 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $20,618 −$20,538 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $7,071 −$7,007 -99%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5 May 30 $879 +$1,119 +127%
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $799 −$780 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) May 30 $219 −$215 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,369 +$1,333 +56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $38,888 +$16,666 +43%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 24 $34,940 +$27,953 +80%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $53,103 +$46,897 +88%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,605 −$1,591 -99%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $499 −$495 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4,505 −$4,505 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $37,226 +$39,613 +106%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 May 18 $176 +$101 +57%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $1,113 +$682 +61%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 18 $11,143 +$11,957 +107%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 May 18 $12,603 +$10,829 +86%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,291 −$5,268 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $4,450 −$4,450 -100%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) May 17 $1,261 −$1,241 -98%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8,752 −$8,752 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $70,974 −$70,243 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $26,666 +$28,889 +108%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $892 −$892 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $7,249 −$7,249 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $101 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $27 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $114 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $253 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $37 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $253 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $24 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $12 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $22 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1722 history records