Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa368…9f13 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$1
other 15% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 5% −$5
weather 5% $0
crypto 3% −$9
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 11% -9.9%
all 21 -19.9% -27.6% 43% 5% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 5% -13.7%
10% -34.5% 0% -22.0%
15% -40.8% 0% -29.5%
20% -46.6% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage467d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $67 +$7 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 −$4 -45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $46 −$10 -22%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 20 $7 $0 +4%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 12? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Epstein files released this week? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $26 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $23 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $2 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $19 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $46 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 48¢ $45 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 41¢ $39 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $38 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $38 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $9 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $27 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $30 27d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 182d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No $0 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records