Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa364…18aa crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 5% -10.8%
≤30d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 5% -10.8%
all 44 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 5% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.70 (match) · 130 history records