Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa363…c423 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 33% +$1
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 58% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage456d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $24 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $77 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +7%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $13 $0 +4%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $23 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $15 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $8 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $16 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $35 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $8 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $30 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $41 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $41 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $10 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $27 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $11 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $25 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.42 · official $37.42 (match) · 87 history records