Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa362…d665 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41 (+14%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 54% -4.1%
≤30d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 54% -4.1%
≤90d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 54% -4.1%
all 24 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 54% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 54% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 25% -13.3%
15% -33.6% 8% -21.7%
20% -40.1% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 8¢ 8¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.58 · official $28.76 · 69 history records