Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa35d…102a sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-2%) realized −$230 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$530
crypto 4% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 56% -7.6%
≤30d 63 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 56% -7.6%
≤90d 63 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 56% -7.6%
all 63 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 56% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 56% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -16.4%
15% -17.8% 51% -24.5%
20% -25.9% 44% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$201 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage7d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner GLYPH 61¢ 56¢ $339 $312 −$27 (-8%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 74¢ $154 $209 +$55 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $269 +$74 +28%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $198 +$71 +36%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $144 −$86 -60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 22 $210 +$230 +110%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $243 −$239 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $289 +$435 +151%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $146 +$142 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$70 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $100 +$62 +62%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $117 +$80 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$51 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$10 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $82 −$81 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $34 +$48 +140%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das Jun 20 $149 −$147 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $575 −$528 -92%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $491 −$460 -94%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $965 −$946 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $400 +$344 +86%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $199 +$523 +262%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $497 −$490 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $395 +$303 +77%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $610 −$597 -98%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $720 +$786 +109%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $380 +$340 +89%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $458 +$600 +131%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $158 −$95 -60%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $70 +$30 +43%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $106 −$104 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$28 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $100 −$99 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $100 +$103 +103%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $186 −$183 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $148 +$137 +92%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $219 −$216 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $141 +$78 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 61¢ $343 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 78¢ $343 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 60¢ $269 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $269 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $198 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $156 6h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $58 6h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $144 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $210 10h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 34¢ $243 16h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 100¢ $724 17h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 37¢ $19 17h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 39¢ $270 17h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 50¢ $144 20h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 44¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $73 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $73 30h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $162 30h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Chicago Sky 99¢ $110 31h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $100 31h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 54¢ $61 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.90 · official $520.90 (match) · 160 history records