Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa35c…14ca other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$263 (+19%) realized +$264 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$166
14 days+$229
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$17
sports 22% +$223
crypto 5% −$13
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 42% +9.2%
≤30d 36 +25.7% +13.7% 58% 50% +11.5%
≤90d 36 +25.7% +13.7% 58% 50% +11.5%
all 36 +25.7% +13.7% 58% 50% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 50% +11.5%
10% +2.8% 50% +0.8%
15% -7.1% 50% -8.9%
20% -16.2% 36% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage11d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$31 +97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $148 −$42 -28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$25 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$9 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$4 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$78 +292%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$70 +327%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$75 +236%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$13 +49%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$84 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$56 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$38 +236%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $137 −$32 -23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +187%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $32 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $93 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $56 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $56 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.55 · official $108.55 (match) · 76 history records